An asteroid called YR4 was reported in December to have a chance to hit Earth in 2032. The asteroid is between 40 and 90 meters, which is comparable to between half to a full football field. The chances of the asteroid hitting Earth increased through the month of February with headlines calling it a “city-killer.” It first started out to have a 1/82 chance, and the odds have now increased to a 1/32 chance. YR4 was initially predicted to hit Earth on the 22nd of December, 2032.  The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN)  issued its first-ever “official impact risk notification” for YR4. This, according to Universe Today, prompted several major telescopes to gather additional data on the asteroid. A telescope in Hawaii captured images of the asteroid that have caused astronomers to determine, as of early March, that it will not hit Earth.

The asteroid, according to a website called New Scientist, was originally reported to have “the potential to release energy equivalent to 7.7 megatons of TNT should it hit Earth – enough to destroy a city.”  

YR4 was spotted in Chile on the 27th of December, 2024. The Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System found it passing by Earth. It was traveling incredibly fast but it is now in the constellation of “Cancer”.  We will only be able to see the asteroid every four years because of our rotation around the sun.

Even before news started reporting the decreasing threat of YR4 in March, Katy Downing, the Planetarium Program Coordinator at the Lake Erie Nature and Science Center, said, “We should not be scared of this asteroid at all. NASA currently predicts it has a 1% chance of impacting the Earth, but it turns out that every time we observe it and measure its movement, the math works out that it’s even less than 1%. ” 

Since the asteroid has been been tracked more closely, New Scientist reported the probability of impact at an even lower  0.3%. 

Downing also noted that with asteroid or others, we often have a long time to prepare. YR4, for example, is almost eight years away. NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) has a department called “Planetary Defense” where they monitor asteroids such as YR4. Downing explains that NASA recently tested a new system called DART, or the Double Asteroid Redirection Test. They “successfully crashed a little spacecraft into an asteroid and changed its orbit.” She explained that the DART system could be a way we protect ourselves from future potential impacts.

Downing also clarified that the size of the asteroid makes it less of a threat than the ominous “dinosaur killer” of the past. She explains that “the asteroid that caused mass extinction on Earth was almost 10 MILES wide. This one is 130 feet. This asteroid impact would be more like the Tunguska asteroid, which was between 50 and 130 feet wide.” The Tunguska asteroid hit Siberia in June of 1908. It had the largest impact on Earth, flattering 2,000 square miles of forest, according to Historical Mysteries.  Britannica states, “The energy of the explosion is estimated to have been equivalent to the explosive force of as much as 15 megatons of TNT.” 

Eighth-grade science teacher Mrs. Williams believes that the asteroid will not hit Earth. She states, “We will be prepared.” Williams believes we will have a mechanism or tool that will, if needed, destroy the asteroid before it makes impact. She also thinks that it will burn up in the atmosphere before 2032, reducing its size and therefore its threat.

YR4 is almost eight years away and the nation and world has plenty of time to prepare and monitor the asteroid’s course.  For now, it seems there is little to no threat.